The future of transpacific partnership tpp is uncertain, but vietnam s export outlook is still. A political economy of economic restructuring in vietnam. It then examines vietnams current economic challenges, including those raised by the us withdrawal from the transpacific partnership tpp. Bank lending to the construction and real executive summary 3 cambodia economic update may 2019. The world economy in q4 and in 2017 witnessed a steady growth. Jan 12, 2017 the world bank said chinas growth would continue to slow, easing to 6. Downside risks dominate myanmars economic outlook, which includes global economic uncertainty, the rakhine crisis and domestic conflicts growth in the construction and service sectors is expected to remain robust in the medium term due to continued infrastructure investment growth to slow amid higher external. Amidst a generally favorable global context, developing east. The government will prioritise increasing foreign direct investment and. Most macro economic indicators in vietnam have improved in 2017, which has helped to minimise market volatility, increase vietnam s export competitiveness relative to other. Gdp growth to remain fairly stable in 2017 primary high high high.
Vietnam economy gdp, inflation, cpi and interest rate. With a population of nearly 100 million people, over 60% are under the age of 35, viet nam is wellpositioned to supply a young, abundant and quality workforce at competitive cost. Overall, the growth prospects of the emerging asian economies southeast asia, china and india are expected to remain robust over the medium term amid global economic uncertainty. Continued agricultural recovery and strengthened household balance sheets will support private. After a slow start and some pessimistic predictions, vietnam will end 2017 with an impressive gross domestic product gdp growth rate of 6. Government resources key economic reports 2019 investment climate statement vietnam vietnam country commercial guide 2017 human rights report section 7. World bank reaffirms bright outlook for vietnams economy in 2017. The forecasts are in and vietnam can gloat again after a scare in early 2017. With growth in ireland in 2015 computed using gross value added at constant prices excluding.
Economy economic indicators for viet nam the spread of covid19 and the resulting abrupt global slowdown will slash growth to 4. The paper includes insights gathered during field research in vietnam during may and june 2017. At the start of 2017, for example, investment strategists were paralysed by the unusual uncertainties in the economic and political outlook. In januaryafebruary, growth in industrial production, retail sales, tourist arrivals and exports moderated from q4. Oecd ilibrary economic outlook for southeast asia, china. Hereafter, we refer to this model as the vnet for vietnam education and training model. The involvement of companies such as samsung and lg has helped to persuade suppliers to those firms to invest in vietnam as well. After years of strong economic growth and surging foreign direct investment, vietnam today is emerging as a key middleincome country in the southeast asian political and economic sphere. Asean business outlook survey 2018 3 c m y cm my cy cmy k 210x297170503fa. Dec 27, 2017 the forecasts are in and vietnam can gloat again after a scare in early 2017. On the back of improved economic fundamentals, vietnams gold, oil and stock prices picked up and its real estate market remained buoyant in spite of instability in international economies. It concludes with a discussion of the australiavietnam relationship.
Hanoi, july, 2017 amidst strengthening recovery in the global economy since late 2016, vietnam s gross domestic product gdp expanded by 5. World economic and financial surveys regional economic outlook interna tional monet ar y fund. Economic outlook for southeast asia, china and india. While visualising this calendar please take into account that some countries often publish their data in different dates than what was previously announced because of data gathering delays or other issues.
The economy has lost momentum so far this year according to the most recent data, due to the fallout from covid19. In 2018, vietnam s gross domestic product gdp amounted to around 241. Vietnams economy shows fundamental strength, with stable. Viet nams economic transformation during the last 30 years has been nothing short of remarkable. Jul 16, 2019 five charts explain vietnams economic outlook.
Vietnam economic calendar this page includes a list of calendar events for vietnam. We use vnet to forecast changes in the vietnamese economy between 2010 and 2020. Vietnam will remain one of the fastestgrowing economies in the asiapacific region in the medium term, driven by its external sector. In the mediumterm, vietnams economic outlook is positive, despite signs of cyclical moderation in growth. Resiliency amid emerging market uncertainty introduction vietnam s expansion has charged ahead despite the recent financial and trade turmoil inflicting pain across southeast asias emerging markets. Sep 12, 2018 fed tightening, rising debt levels and political uncertainty are casting a shadow on the outlook for strong global growth. Vietnam s growth while the services sector recorded the largest increase. Key indicators the key indicators for asia and the pacific publication presents data regarding the economic, financial, social, and environmental situations in a broad range of countries across the region. Workers rights 2018 special 301 report pdf 605kb 2018 national trade estimate report pdf 1. The asian development outlook analyzes economic and development issues in developing countries in asia. The economy of vietnam is a socialistoriented market economy, which is the 44thlargest in the world as measured by nominal gross domestic product gdp and 32ndlargest in the world as measured by purchasing power parity ppp. Doubledigit manufacturing growth boosted industry, while a surge in visitor arrivals, a healthy labor market and mild price pressures propelled the services sector.
Vietnam economy, politics and gdp growth summary the. Asia and the pacific continued to perform well in 2017, with gdp growth in the. We hope this guide can help investors through their sustainable growth in this economy. Despite some fundamental challenges, international experts and the vietnamese government are positive about the vietnamese economy in 2017. Vietnams economic growth surges to above 7% as exports. The agency affixed the negative outlook a year earlier due to a combination of falling copper revenue and slowing economic growth leading to persistent and large fiscal deficits as well as a doubling of government debt since. Brunei darussalam, cambodia, indonesia, lao pdr, malaysia, myanmar, the. Global finance magazine vietnam gdp and economic data. Endorsed on may 30, 2017, and reflecting and building on the priorities identified and expressed in the world bank groups 2016 systematic country diagnostic, the vietnam 2035 report, and the government of vietnam s 20162020 socioeconomic development plan sedp, the cpf has four priority areas. Myanmar, the philippines, singapore, thailand, and vietnam, unless otherwise specified.
Standard chartered forecasts vietnams gdp growth at 6. Over the last 11 years, vietnam s economy has grown at a compound annual rate of 5. Outlook after experiencing accelerated growth of 7. Merchandise export growth should increase only moderately next year, capped by the fragile global economic recovery. Browse additional economic indicators and data sets, selected by global finance editors, to learn more about vietnam. Following a banner year in 2017 when real gdp growth registered at a sixyear high of 6. The disruption caused by the novel coronavirus in the first half of 2020 will not do lasting harm to exportoriented industries. Slower momentum introduction the southeast asia economy has enjoyed a solid run in the last two years with gdp growth of 5.
If maintained into 2017, high levels of lending could see the sbv move on rates to take some of the heat out of demand in the. The economy performed better than expected in the third quarter according to recent data, with both the industrial and services sectors picking up speed. At the same time, viet nam ranks 60th out of 8 economies in the world economic forum s 2017 global competitiveness report. This forecast is highlighted at standard chartereds global research. Vietnam economy and stock market fy2018 outlook fiachra mac cana head of research and managing director ho chi minh city securities corporation vn. Vietnam is a member of asiapacific economic cooperation, association of southeast asian nations and the world trade organization.
Economic forums 2017 global competitiveness report. It focuses on the economic conditions of association of southeast asian nations asean member countries. Brunei darussalam, cambodia, indonesia, lao pdr, malaysia, myanmar, the philippines, singapore, thailand and viet nam. Nov 09, 2017 over the last 11 years, vietnam s economy has grown at a compound annual rate of 5. Most macroeconomic indicators in vietnam have improved in 2017. Economic outlook 2018 report entitled beware of the dog, and its latest global research report on vietnam entitled vietnam in 2018 fast or furious. Vietnam p 11 south africa p 24 myanmar p 12 saudi arabia p 25 cambodia p uae p 26 india p 14 australia p 27. While the upward trend was not seen in gdp growth rate, vietnam ended 2016 with generally good news and is anticipating a positive outlook for 2017. In 2017, vietnam successfully chaired the asiapacific economic cooperation apec. Government spending and debt remained in check and bank capital rules were strengthened. This page has economic forecasts for vietnam including a longterm outlook for the next decades, plus mediumterm expectations for the next four quarters and shortterm market predictions for the next release affecting the vietnam economy.
A large number of experts believe that vietnam will be able to achieve its target economic growth of 6. Vcci and pwc vietnam have collaborated to publish this guide since the hosting of apec in viet nam in 2017. These quickresponse articles analyse key events in terms of how we expect them to affect our political and economic forecast, and are closely tied to. Eias international energy outlook 2017 ieo2017 presents an assessment of longterm world energy markets. Looking forward, vietnams mediumterm outlook remains positive, with real gdp growth projected to accelerate slightly to 6.
As exports moderate in line with deceleration in global demand see box 1, real growth is projected to ease to 7 percent in 2019. The ieo2017 is the first ed ition of this report to include mo del results through 2050, which are available on the ieo page of the eia website. Vietnams economic growth will accelerate in 2018 as. Country report 2017 includes vietnam real gross domestic product growth rate, with latest forecasts and historical data, gdp per capita, gdp composition and breakdown by sector. Currently, chemicals and pharmaceuticals are the drivers. The economic outlook for southeast asia, china and india is a biannual publication on regional economic growth, development and regional integration in emerging asia.
In 2017, solid manufacturing growth and increased construction activity are likely to remain the growth drivers. Vietnam s economic growth surges to above 7% as exports climb. Vietnam joined the wto in january 2007 and concluded several free trade agreements in 201516, including the eu vietnam free trade agreement which the eu has not yet ratified, the korean free trade agreement, and the eurasian economic union free trade agreement. Exports of clothing and other textile products have moderated and the construction sector is showing signs of easing. The strong rate of economic expansion was also reflected in bank lending, with credit growth hitting 21. To be more specific, in 2019, we forecast samsung vietnam s revenue will 51. An allout trade war could slow global trade, and in turn, vietnam s economy. Characterised by political, social and macroeconomic. Fostering growth through digitalisation economic outlook for. Fdi region, including samsung, formosa, nghi son petrochemical refinery still strongly supports processing and manufacturing. However, after a surge in 20172018, the growth of processing and manufacturing industries will likely slow down in 2019. Economic outlook for southeast asia, china and india 2017. Despite rising trade tensions and volatility in emerging economies throughout 2018, vietnams economy saw broadbased growth and low inflation.
World bank vietnam economic outlook 2017 european chamber. Asian development outlook 2017 update was prepared by staff of the asian development bank adb in the central and west asia department, east asia department, pacific department, south asia department, southeast asia department, and economic research and regional cooperation department, as well as in adb resident missions. The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehen. Since then, the guide has been an annual flagship publication which represents the partnership between vcci and pwc vietnam. International monetary fund imf world economic outlook weo database, cited in pwcs the future of.
General features and composition of groups in the world economic outlook classification table a. The graphics in this presen tation focus on projections through 2040. With regard to trade balance, a steady improvement has been seen over the last three years. In fact, i can cite some statistics that showcase our countrys dynamics. Bank credit to the private sector once again edged up, growing at 24.
However, trade tensions between the united states and china could pose a threat. Despite rising trade tensions and volatility in emerging economies throughout 2018, vietnam s economy saw broadbased growth and low inflation. Quarterl gloal outlook 2q201 uo gloal economics markets research 32 vietnam s consumer insights the bright spot in the mekong region vietnam is currently experiencing one of its fastest economic expansions in years. Vietnams economy shows fundamental strength, with stable and. The economic growth outlook for developing asia remains vibrant. Vietnam s economy expanded more than 6 percent for a second year in 2016, defying a regional slowdown to remain one of the. Vietnam has consistently achieved its targeted economic growth rates in recent years. Asian development outlook 2018 foresees continued momentum after growth accelerated to 6. Classification by world economic outlook groups and their shares in aggregate gdp, exports of goods and services, and population, 2015 table b. Recent economic developments and outlook executive summary growth remains robust, but is projected to ease slightly to 6. Reviewing vietnams economic reforms since the cpvs twelfth.562 674 1324 29 1299 1404 1350 8 792 1484 1434 283 941 1086 355 1129 1327 157 1368 943 80 1054 572 865 1055 193 818 1231 547 1423 1182 203 348 533 667